Based on an analysis of the political history of Russia, the book shows that revolutions in our state are repeated with a clear frequency. Russian history is a complex cyclical process. In the first approximation, it can be represented as a superposition, a "superposition" of three cycles lasting 71-86 years, 300 years and 383-384 years. In addition, it is shown that between the most important events of Russian history, time passes, a multiple of an integer number of periods ... (More) revolutions of the planets of the solar system. Dates of all events in the history of Russia are given according to traditional chronology. The reader can independently check any date in the reference book or books presented in the bibliography.

The book is intended for anyone interested in history. Not necessarily domestic, but foreign as well. Because periodic processes occur not only in Russia. This is a universal, planetary phenomenon. The patterns found can be applied to search for periodic processes in the history of other states.

From the publisher
From the author
Introduction
Chapter 1.	Cycles of the political history of Russia
	1.1.	Cycle of the 20th century. 1905--1989
	1.2.	Cycle 1604-1682
	1.3.	Cycle 1304-1375
	1.4.	Cycles 1375-1462 and 1682-1762
	1.5.	Cycles 1462-1533 and 1762-1825
	1.6.	Cycles 1533-1604 and 1825-1905
	1.7.	Preliminary results
	1.8.	Hypercycles of 383-384 in the history of Russia
	1.9.	The modern period in terms of cycles of revolutions, 300-year cycles and hypercycles of 383-384
		1.9.1.	The modern period and its analogues in the 300-year cycle
		1.9.2.	Modern period and hypercycle 383--384
	1.10.	Cycles of revolutions in the history of Kievan and Vladimir Rus
	1.11.	conclusions
Chapter 2	History of Russia and periods of revolution around the Sun of Venus, Mars, Jupiter and Saturn
	2.1.	About time units
	2.2.	Periods of Venus in the history of Russia
	2.3.	Periods of Mars in the history of Russia
	2.4.	Periods of Jupiter in the history of Russia
	2.5.	Periods of Saturn in the history of Russia
	2.6.	Relations between the periods of revolution of the Earth, Venus, Mars, Jupiter and Saturn. Their manifestation in the history of Russia
		2.6.1.	Period Z
		2.6.2.	Period 18M
		2.6.3.	Period 31M
		2.6.4.	Some relations of harmony of the solar system
		2.6.5.	Periods 19M
	2.7.	External patterns between periods 19M
	2.8.	The internal structure of some periods 19M
		2.8.1.	Period 1598-1633
		2.8.2.	Period 1905-1941
		2.8.3.	Period 1917-1953
		2.8.4.	Period 1533-1569
		2.8.5.	Period 1985-2020 (hypothesis)
	2.9.	Cycles of the history of Russia and the periods of revolution of the planets
		2.9.1.	Cycles 71--86 years
		2.9.2 300 year cycles
		2.9.3.	Hypercycles lasting 383--384 years
	2.10.	Global Cycles
		2.10.1.	The first global cycle -- Ancient Rome
		2.10.2.	Second global cycle - Byzantium
		2.10.3.	Third Global Cycle -- Europe
	2.11.	Star days of the rulers of Russia in the 17th-20th centuries and periods of planetary circulation
	2.12.	conclusions
Conclusion
Application
Bibliography

I dedicate it to my parents Ivan Vasilyevich and Vera Ivanovna.

When you open any book, the first thing you want to know is what it is about. To make it easier for the reader to choose, we will immediately define the topic of this book and warn him of what difficulties he will have to face.

The theme of this book is periodic processes in the political history of the Russian state. We will try to consider in detail the most important political events in the history of the Moscow principality, the Russian Empire and the USSR, from 1304 to the present, and very briefly touch on the history of Kievan and Vladimir Rus in the period from 1000 to 1300.

The first chapter will show that state cataclysms, such as revolutions, civil wars, uprisings, occur in the history of Russia at clearly measured intervals, with a frequency of approximately 71-86 years, 300 years and 383-384 years. Knowing these periods, one can try to predict future events. Many books have already been written on this subject. Here we will go from specific historical events to general patterns. We will classify political events, "break" the history of Russia into several periods, and then show why certain events should be chosen as the boundary events of these, and not some other periods. You will see that the duration of the periods can be measured with an accuracy of one day, and these periods repeat. This technique can also be applied to search for periodic processes in the history of other states.

In the second chapter it will be shown that the duration between the most important historical events is equal to whole numbers of periods of revolution of the planets of the solar system around the Sun. You will also learn about some interesting relationships between the periods of revolution of the planets, and how these relationships "manifest" in the history of Russia. All this raises many questions. Unfortunately, most of them have not yet been answered. Let's hope that at least some answers will be found in the near future.

And now a few general remarks.

Firstly, this is not a new chronology in the style of A.T. Fomenko and G.V. Nosovsky. All conclusions and calculations given in this book are based on the existing, traditional chronology. You can find the date of any event that we are going to talk about in any good encyclopedic reference book. Unfortunately, most reference books either do not give exact dates or are full of typos. And this is a big problem. There are no real encyclopedic publications on the history of Russia, at least in Russian, yet.

Secondly, this book is not for easy reading. Although there are no complex logical constructions in it, dates and numbers are in abundance. This is the specificity of our topic. Dates are very important to us. Why? You will learn about this in the second chapter.

Since we are talking about dates, we will immediately decide that we will use the now generally accepted Gregorian calendar. It should be remembered that some countries have used other calendars before, and even now. In addition, not all countries immediately switched to the Gregorian calendar at the same time. For example, Russia switched to this calendar relatively recently, only in 1918. That year February 1st was immediately followed by February 14th. In order not to be confused, we will indicate all dates in the history of Russia before February 1, 1918 according to the old style, i.e. according to the Julian calendar. Unfortunately, most historians do not indicate at all which calendar they use. Therefore, it took a long time to find out and look for exact dates, and where it was not possible to find an exact reference to the calendar, the author assumes that the dates are indicated according to the Gregorian calendar. His only justification is that the error in the dates of the Julian and Gregorian calendar is quite small, and is 13 days for the 20th century and even less for the 19th-16th centuries. Such is the accuracy of our chronology.

Thirdly, in this book we will talk about the most important events in the history of Russia over the past seven hundred years. There are many of these events, and special studies are devoted to almost each of them. In order to see a certain system in all this diversity, it is necessary to look at the past from a bird's eye view. This means that we will describe historical events, but very briefly, and many details that are not important for our topic will be omitted, we simply will not see them. It remains to be hoped that the reader is familiar with Russian history or will easily find specialized literature on a particular event that will interest him. The list of references is attached.

Fourth, in describing historical events, we will try not to use ethical assessments. Let's focus on what happened and when. The sequence of events will also be very important for us.

Fifthly, we will carry out small calculations, while 4 rules of arithmetic and a pocket calculator will be enough for us. All this should not cause great difficulties for the reader.

All historians, both ancient and modern, describe single, unique events and actions of specific people. Nothing they write about will ever happen again. There will be no second Ivan Kalita, no second Peter I, no second Poltava, no second Battle of Borodino. All this, of course, is true, but the uniqueness of the event does not mean at all that this event cannot be something similar to others. One of the greats said that history repeats itself twice - once in the form of a tragedy, and the second time in the form of a farce. Somewhere on the subconscious level, we realize that there are similar events, similar periods, similar rulers. Many, for example, were compared with Napoleon, I.V. Stalin was often compared with Ivan the Terrible. But if there are similar events, then it is interesting to know at what time intervals they occur. Maybe there are some patterns here?

Even in Soviet times, we were taught that there are general laws of development of society - it allegedly goes through certain stages, phases of development. But then there were words, words, words, and nothing concrete. Why are these laws not formalized? Is it even possible to represent them in the form of mathematical formulas?

The first and important step in this direction was made by Lev Nikolaevich Gumilyov. He discovered the laws of development of the ethnos. It turned out that the ethnos behaves like a living being, i.e. he is "born" and "dies." Its "age" lasts approximately 1200-1500 years, and catastrophic events occur every 200-300 years, and the ethnos passes into another phase of its life. Ethnic groups are always fighting with each other, and very often young ethnic groups absorb the old ones. Therefore, the lifetime of ethnic groups can be both 300 and 500 years (1).

Are there similar laws for states? They must exist, because the ethnos creates the state, this is its "form of life, form of existence." Most often, several ethnic groups unite in one state, but at the same time there is always one dominant one, which has a decisive influence on its neighbors. It follows from this that states behave like an ethnos, they also go through crises and exist (if they are not "eaten" by other states) for about 1200-1500 years.

But is it not possible to predict catastrophic events in the "life" of states with greater accuracy, well, at least up to one year, and in the future, up to one month or a day?

This is the main question, the main problem. This book is dedicated to her solution. Of course, this problem cannot be solved by one person alone. We will try here only to identify some directions, ways in which we can hope to find a solution.

The first step in the search for the laws of the development of states should be the classification of political events. We must highlight some similar events, similar time periods. Other sciences have long passed this stage. For example, geometry back in the days of Euclid (different geometric shapes were identified - triangles, squares, etc.). Biology passed this stage in the 19th century. History is a whole conglomeration of sciences, and it lags behind in its development. Perhaps now it is her turn, the time has come to move from descriptions of events (this is the subject of a special science, and maybe even art) to their classification (this will be a different science).

Let us try to carry out such a classification on the example of the history of Russia. Why Russia? This choice is obvious. First, it is the author's (and reader's) native story, and it is of particular interest. Secondly, there is much more information on Russian history than on the history of any other state.

So, let's try to "decompose" all the important political events in the history of Russia "on separate shelves" or "boxes", as in a library catalog.

What events will we put in these "boxes"? We will be interested only in political events, and, moreover, in "turning point" events, i.e. those that led to changes in the system and government bodies. These are, first of all, revolutions, civil wars, coup d'état, riots, uprisings. Sometimes even the death of a tsar or a grand duke was such a "turning point" event, since with the new tsar (grand duke) his new "team" came to power, and then the redistribution of power and, accordingly, property began.

We will not be interested in cultural and scientific events, we will not even talk about some of the wars waged by Russia, because wars did not always lead to changes in the structure of government.

The first question that confronts us is what are we going to write on these "boxes"? Essentially it is a question of terms. "Define the meanings of words, and you will rid the world of half of the contradictions," said A.S. Pushkin. Let us follow the advice of the great poet and now try to determine the meaning of the word - revolution. In the future, in the course of presentation, we will introduce new terms, sometimes we will use old words, but the meaning is to put in a new one.

So, the first and very important term for us that we will write on the first "box" is the word "revolution". It would seem that everyone knows what it is. What is there to explain? In fact, there is no generally accepted definition of revolution. In this book, the word revolution will mean a "drastic", "explosive", "catastrophic" change in the structure and government of the state, followed by changes in the social structure of society. Revolutions do not always lead to civil war, but armed clashes, even on a small scale, are always observed.

The definition you proposed needs to be clarified, of course. Its main drawback is that it does not take into account one significant factor - time. Is a revolution a one-day event or some kind of process? Of course, this is a process that lasts in time and therefore has a beginning and an end. More precisely, it should be said that there are events with which revolutions begin, and there are events with which revolutions end. There is some contingency in their choice. Such events should be bright, significant, and should be "boundary", i.e. they should immediately be followed by changes in the structure of government. Sometimes finding such events is not so easy, because you have to choose between several events. There are other difficulties here as well.

Let's move on from our theoretical considerations to real historical events, and in particular to the events of Russian history, which is still close to us in the 20th century. Let's try to look at the political cataclysms of this century without "ideological blinkers" and moral assessments, we will concentrate only on the facts of history, on what happened and when.

Vasiliev Vasily Ivanovich

Graduated from the Moscow Higher Technical School. N. E. Bauman in 1981 with a degree in Aircraft. Works in the rocket and space industry. Area of ​​interest: history of Russia, Ancient Rome, Byzantium and Western European states; ethnogenesis. He is the author of the books “Does history repeat itself? On periodic processes in the political history of Russia” (M.: URSS), “Cosmo-rhythms in the history of the Russian Empire (1671–1918)” (M.: URSS), “Cosmo-rhythms in the history of Great Britain”.

"I'm catastrophically unlucky in life"- complained a friend. "I always step on the same rake, get into the same situations, and all the time I get the same result. I'm a loser! This is karma!" Well, and so on. She broke up with another guy, and he, like the previous ones, cheated on her with another. In principle, life "slips" repetitive situations on everyone, as if laughing at us, developing events according to a certain scenario. You can, of course, consider it a curse, karma, or whatever, and continue to live.I wonder if it is possible to somehow fight this?

With mother's milk

The child grows and develops in a certain circle of people, in his own. Therefore, everything that he sees, hears and feels becomes his life program. After all, you must admit that you cannot know that white chocolate exists if you have tried and seen only black, and have not even heard anything about white. Therefore, it is quite natural that a little daughter, seeing the relationship of her parents, determines in advance how it is supposed to behave with men (like mom), and what kind of men they are (like dad).

In advance programmed the scenario, against our will, manifests itself later in adult life. Well, imagine if mom always made scandals for dad for any reason, what will their adult daughter do? Yes, exactly the same! The development of events in the life of a daughter is predictable: to repeat the fate of her mother. And then we lament karma! Instill in your children a positive attitude and program a sense of harmony. Then they will enjoy their fate.

A typical scenario

So we instilled since childhood we have had a clear idea about "dark chocolate", and we are sure that we know how to act in this or that situation. In addition to education, we also got character, and over time we acquired a whole bunch of habits. Character and habits, along with upbringing, determine the development of the scenario of our future life. How do we deal with similar situations? It's the same, because you're used to it. Therefore, we get the same results.

If you are short-tempered character, then you are easily pissed off. And if there is some kind of habit that affects the personal space of other people (and it inevitably does), then you make relationships with a person dependent on your habit. Here is my girlfriend's habit of calling her boyfriend at the end of the working day to find out his future plans for the evening regarding her person. This is repeated daily. And with every guy she has a quarrel about this. Who can withstand such total control, and just obsession?! And the habit of arranging scenes against the backdrop of a jealous character? Dangerous mix! It also happens vice versa.

Too modest young woman is a prisoner of her shyness, and does not understand why all her dates end the same way - no way. It's just that she always behaves in her own style - constrained and strict, regardless of whether she likes the guy or not. Blindly following our habits and tastes, we not only choose a style of behavior in similar situations, but we even like men with approximately the same type of appearance and with similar character traits. Of course, "they are all goats"! We choose them ourselves!

Break the vicious circle

Esoteric psychologists they say that life specifically sends us to change, and until we learn them, the lessons will be repeated. In principle, life is not distinguished by a special variety of events. All traditional events alternate in a chaotic manner, and we continue to act as we are used to, or as our parents taught us. By repeating our own mistakes around the circle, we get the same results. To get a different result, you will have to abandon the usual behavior and attitudes. Let's try something unconventional.

First thing to do do, is to analyze all the significant events in your life, the result of which does not suit you, and understand how we acted in them, how we reacted. And then develop the opposite strategy of action. For example, having done an analysis of constant quarrels with one person, I realized that the reason for this result was my habit of arguing and proving my case.

And since he was on rarity stubborn (the same as me), then each new situation led us to a quarrel. I changed my strategy: I forced myself to agree with him on any occasion, even if, in my opinion, he was wrong. Inwardly, I continued to argue, but outwardly behaved completely opposite. And, oh miracle! Quarrels have stopped, relations have improved, and now, when such situations arise, I adhere to a new strategy of behavior.

Do over yourself an effort, break your stereotypes, habits, behavior. Deviate from the traditions accepted in your family. Slow down your usual reaction, do everything differently than usual, and "karma" will let you go. Are you a girl of strict rules, and when you meet guys, look down on them? Now take it and smile at him warmly and openly, allow yourself to flirt a little. Are you used to aggressively attacking men, showing them your charms? Learn to be humble and shy. Perhaps, in order to master a new strategy of behavior, you will have to read a book, or consult with an experienced person. Take action! What's the point of just lamenting?

We become hostages habits, upbringing and character. Let's surprise life with new behavior, and then perhaps it will surprise us with new results.

In the photo in the center, Nikolai Kofirin is the commander of the people's militia detachment (photo from the home archive)

The German philosopher Georg Wilhelm Friedrich Hegel said: “History repeats itself twice. The first time in the form of a tragedy, the second - in the form of a farce.
In connection with the centenary of the revolution of 1917, more and more people are asking if the upheavals will happen again. On December 28, 2016, Dmitry Yakovlevich Travin, an independent and authoritative St. Petersburg economist, professor at the European University in St. Petersburg, gave a lecture on "Russia-1917 and Russia-2017" at the St. Petersburg book club "Order of Words". I asked the listeners whether the revolution will repeat itself in Russia?

In 1960, a filmstrip was released about what the USSR would be like in 2017. Many technical advances are predicted correctly. But the most important thing - the collapse of the state of the USSR - was not foreseen by anyone. Nobody but Nostradamus...

At school, we studied the February bourgeois revolution of 1917 only as a prehistory of the Great October Socialist Revolution. Now the opposite is true: the February events in Petrograd are called a revolution, and the October armed uprising is considered a coup.

The well-known literary critic Marietta Chudakova believes: “It seems to me that people do not realize what year awaits us - the centenary of October. … October was disastrous for Russia, because it led it off its historical path into a historical stall for more than seventy years - or into a historical dead end - whichever word you like better.

On December 30, 2016, the Kommersant newspaper published an article “There will be no 17th year”. "Russia intends to live it out as quickly as possible." “The government, business, and society would prefer to simply skip the next year. All visible threats of serious changes in 2016 have been removed in advance, all big plans have been postponed to 2018. It is this atmosphere of the upcoming 2017 that is best suited for all that no one expected.”

The newspaper "Arguments and Facts" on the eve of the new year published an article "Does the revolution have an end?" (No. 51 of December 21, 2016). As it turns out, the slogans of a hundred years ago have an impact on the current world order.
Alexander Chubaryan, scientific director of the Institute of General History of the Russian Academy of Sciences, believes: “For example, in the West they are well aware that the theory and practice of the welfare state is a product of the Russian revolution. And quite logically they say that without this there would be neither modern Sweden, nor modern Germany, nor modern France. Yes, and the European Union as such, since it is based on leftist, socialist principles. In social terms, Russia was then ahead of the whole world by a whole era, setting a new, hitherto unseen standard of social structure.

Many doubt: will the memories of the events of a hundred years ago wake up protest activity in Russia?
Politicians say: “The main thing is that protest moods should not be used by the “fifth column” to destroy the country according to the Kyiv scenario.”

Is a revolution remake possible in 2017?

“A revolution is not ruled out, which can take several forms,” says historian and public figure of the left wing Alexander Shubin. “On the one hand, there may be a pseudo-revolution of the liberals, but Bolotnaya turned out to be a good vaccine from this. On the other hand, a nationalist revolution, which is extremely destructive for Russia and is dangerous for all mankind. Thirdly, a social revolution, which can also become a form of social turn, but very destructive. It is very important to defend its non-violent, humanistic, democratic forms in any form of social and remodernization turn.

Independent politician Gennady Gudkov believes:
“I don’t think that a revolution is possible already in 2017: the authorities definitely have enough margin of safety for this year. But by its end, money may run out, and the country will move in the direction of social upheaval ... "

But will anyone go to storm the Kremlin in the year of the centenary of October?

Maxim Suraikin, general secretary of the Communists of Russia party, believes:
“Theoretically, against the backdrop of a deep socio-economic crisis and increased protest moods, a socialist revolution in 2017 is possible.”

Alexei Makarkin, vice president of the Center for Political Studies, is sure of the opposite:
“Today, in the understanding of the vast majority of all segments of the population and political currents, a revolution is bad. Lenin's heir Zyuganov says Russia has reached its limit on revolutions. Liberals frighten the government with revolution and give it advice on how not to bring it to it.”

Let's see if what Olga Slavnikova wrote in the novel "2017" will come true.

On the eve of the new year, I saw a magazine on the newsstands, on the cover of which there was an unexpected question “What will happen to us?” with a photo of Vladimir Putin “Does he really want to end his career in order to fulfill his big dream?”

“Strange,” I thought. “Who is spreading such rumors and why?”

For the holiday, I was presented with a calendar “All year with Vladimir Putin”. Although for some reason it seems that with Vladimir Putin we will spend not only the 2017 “year of ecology” - after all, environmental problems will always be relevant!

The Bulgarian soothsayer Vanga is said to have foreseen that Russia in 2017 would become the savior of the world. According to Vanga, Russia will save the world while other countries will tear each other to pieces. In 2017, there will be terrible geopolitical and social changes that could lead to the Third World War. Against this background, the Slavs will unite under the wing of Russia, which will become the guarantor of peace and justice for all mankind.

The famous psychic Wolf Messing, before undergoing an operation that he did not survive, allegedly predicted what awaits Russia a hundred years after the revolution - that is, in 2017. According to the prediction, the world leaders will be Russia, the United States and China. They can both unleash a war and resolve world conflicts. Specifically for Russia, he predicted that it would have a great impact on world history, despite the attempts of other countries to hinder its development. The Russian economy will grow due to higher oil prices. There will be, however, natural disasters: in October, Siberia is waiting for a flood.

You may not believe this, but you can check.
On January 12-13, 2017, a regular meeting of experts will take place within the framework of the Gaidar Forum. It will be visited by German Gref and Anatoly Chubais. Experts will take part in the discussion “Technological shifts and economic dynamics: what is really happening?”.

In fact, Russia is still sitting on the “oil needle” (gas and oil are the main fillers of the budget). In 2016, budget revenues from oil and gas fell by 18%.
2017 is the last year when holes in the budget can be plugged from reserves. The reserve fund is coming to an end: over the past two years, reserves have decreased from 7 to 1.9 trillion rubles.
According to the head of the Accounts Chamber, Tatyana Golikova, in 2017 Russia will completely exhaust the Reserve Fund, and the government will switch to using the funds of the National Welfare Fund.

Although the price of oil is growing, the ruble is growing against the euro and the dollar, but so are the prices in stores. Indexation of pensions and salaries in accordance with inflation is not planned, the funded part of the pension has been frozen. The introduction of a "tax on parasitism" (20 thousand per year from each parasite) is being discussed.

Despite public protests, collections of signatures and other actions, transport prices in St. Petersburg rose (in the metro from 33 to 45 rubles).
Everyone will have to “tighten their belts,” says economist Alexei Vyazovsky.

The American magazine The Economist is sure that “Russia's economic problems are “grave”. Barack Obama believes that "the Russian economy has been torn to shreds."

In 2017, prices for cigarettes, food and confectionery products will rise (especially chocolate, cakes and pastries).
Prices for fish and meat will rise by 10 percent.
They predict an increase in the price of gasoline.
The prices for medicines will also grow by 5-7%, since almost all raw materials are imported.
The prices of liquor will also rise.

As a sociologist, I sometimes get acquainted with the results of public opinion polls. On December 10-11, 2016, a population survey was conducted in 130 settlements with a total sample of 1,600 people. According to a survey by the All-Russian Public Opinion Research Center (VTsIOM), Russia's main problems are associated with low wages (mentioned by 18% of Russians), the situation with the economy (18%) and healthcare (17%).

The unpopular war in Syria continues, with no end in sight. By December 20, 2016, the Russian Aerospace Forces had made over 30,000 sorties, hitting over 62,000 targets in Syria. Palmyra, liberated and cleared with such difficulty, was again in the hands of the militants.

Every year I listen to Dmitry Travin's lectures and am surprised at the accuracy of his assessments.

They offer a good slogan: "Let's stop starting ..."

I am against revolutions. Any revolution gives rise to confusion, terror and repression. Nobody wants a revolution, except for desperate troublemakers who want to get to power over other people's corpses. But if revolutions do happen, then they are inevitable. And the authorities are primarily to blame for this, since popular indignation is a consequence of the mistakes of the ruling regime.

Is a revolution the result of external forces or a consequence of internal causes? How to prevent a repetition of the revolution? – I, too, as a sociologist, investigated this issue.

On the eve of the February Revolution, the Bolsheviks had a little more than 1 thousand rubles in the box office. Financial assistance came from American bankers, but it did not reach the Bolsheviks until the autumn of 1917, because it was initially received by Trotsky, who was then not a Bolshevik and led his group.

It was considered good manners among the intelligentsia to give money for the revolution. Wealthy merchants also gave. Nobody thought about the consequences. The money for the coup was also transferred by the Germans fighting against Russia, including through Alexander Gelfand (nicknamed Parvus). Back in 1915, he offered the Germans to overthrow the tsar and destroy Russia for money. True, the original documents confirming the receipt of money by the Bolsheviks from the German General Staff are still unknown.

According to the historian Andrei Zubov, a coup in Russia was supposed to take place in 1916.

We know Lenin's public statement in January 1917 in Switzerland that he did not expect to live to see the revolution, but that the youth would see it.

At school I was an excellent student and I still remember three main signs of a revolutionary situation:
1 \ when the tops cannot manage in a new way, and the bottoms do not want to live in the old way;
2\ exacerbation above the usual needs and calamities of the working class;
3\ the growth of the revolutionary activity of the masses.

You read the history of the events of a hundred years ago, and it becomes scary that everything repeats itself.

My grandmother was born in 1891 and lived in St. Petersburg during the three revolutions.
By the end of 1916, prices had tripled since the start of the war, outpacing the rise in household incomes. At the Obukhov plant, the lowest monthly salary was 160 rubles, all other workers received from 225 to 400 rubles. per month. At the same time, a pound of black bread cost 5 kopecks, beef - 40 kopecks, butter - 50 kopecks; and all these products were on sale.

At the end of January 1917, the Working Group began to prepare an anti-government demonstration on the opening day of a new session of the State Duma; the appeal issued by her demanded "the resolute elimination of the autocratic regime."

In February 1917, the main requirement of the State Duma was the introduction in Russia of a "responsible ministry" - a government appointed by the Duma and responsible to the Duma.

On February 20, 1917, the general of the tsarist security department Spiridovich A.I. He described the situation in Petrograd in this way: “Everyone is waiting for some kind of coup. Who will do it, where, how, when - no one knows anything. And everyone is talking and everyone is waiting.”

The revolution, as always, happened unexpectedly. But the reason for the revolution is not that some general did not follow the order and violated the oath. The question is why did he break it?! There is no one reason, there are always many reasons. It is important to understand how objective causes are linked to people's subjective aspirations.

The generals who organized the conspiracy against the tsar only wanted to replace one autocrat with another: Nicholas II - with Mikhail Romanov. Although there were those who proposed a constitutional monarchy and even a republic.

The chief of staff of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief, General Alekseev, began to convince the tsar of the need to introduce a “responsible ministry” (constitutional monarchy) in the country, in 2220 he even sent Nicholas II a corresponding draft manifesto. At one o'clock in the morning the tsar agreed to the establishment of a "responsible ministry". But it was too late!

Until now, they argue about the causes of the February Revolution. The minister of the first composition of the Provisional Government, P.N. Milyukov, admitted that the main causes of the February Revolution were by no means economic, but lay in the plane of politics and culture. "History will curse the leaders, the so-called proletarians, but it will also curse us who caused the storm."

“The February uprising is called spontaneous ... - wrote Leon Trotsky, - in February, no one outlined the ways of a coup in advance ... no one from above called for an uprising. The indignation that had accumulated over the years broke out to a large extent unexpectedly for the masses themselves.

My grandfather, Nikolai Kofirin, led a detachment of revolutionary workers and soldiers.

Was the February Revolution inevitable?

Against the backdrop of an increase in the number of millionaires, the working people became impoverished; people did not want to live in the old way and demanded changes; the political activity of the masses grew; the fundamental issue of land was not resolved, the ruling elite was losing the remnants of legitimacy.

Every revolution is a desperate attempt to resolve painful issues of social life. And those who do not feel these problems and do not try to eliminate them (for example, the most acute property stratification of society), will inevitably find themselves buried under the destructive tornado of the revolution.

The revolution is a manifestation of the need to restore violated justice, that is, the balance in society. And that is why it is not a matter of the absence of bread, but of a sense of justice, for the sake of which people are ready to endure the absence of bread.

The blatant injustice reigning in society is a time bomb. There is a contradiction between social justice and economic efficiency. Current capitalism may not be fair, but it is economically efficient.

Can a society be just and economically efficient at the same time?

I am convinced: the more fair the society, the more cost-effective!
But we, apparently, are doomed to rush between the thirst for justice and the thirst for abundance.
Most rich people do not want to share, believing that since they have worked hard to earn their wealth, then let others work too.
Probably, this would be fair if it did not concern the inherited huge fortunes that were not personally earned.

As you know, history does not teach anyone. Because people learn not from history, but first of all from themselves. Violence and wars have not decreased, the earth is not becoming more beautiful, and the lives of millions of people per capita are not getting better.

Russia is strong not by a strong-willed tsar, but by the unity of the whole people. This is the essence of the Russian idea: catholicity as the spiritual unity of people; when the self-sacrifice of the individual serves to save the whole people, when all problems can be solved together, when the spiritual unity of all is placed above the selfish material interests of each.

But when the preservation of personal power becomes more important than the interests of the people and the state, when loyalty in power becomes more important than professionalism, then revolutions happen.

“Revolutions and wars also do not essentially change anything, but only create anxiety that is often unnecessary for everyone. The laws of existence cannot be changed by any good wishes. Some rulers replace others, they try to transform something, as they say, “for the better”, but sooner or later everything returns to normal.”
(from my novel "Alien Strange Incomprehensible Extraordinary Stranger" on the site New Russian Literature

So what did you want to say with your post? they ask me.

Everything I want to say to people is contained in three main ideas:
1\ The purpose of life is to learn to love, to love no matter what
2\ Meaning is everywhere
3\ Love creates necessity.
EVERYTHING IS LOVE

Happy New Year Seventeen!

And in your opinion, WILL THE REVOLUTION REPEAT?

Synopsis of the books “BOOK OF FATE” and “FATE OF RUSSIA. HISTORY OF THE FUTURE»

For many representatives of the human race, this question has never been a real one, because in their lives they are unconsciously guided by the motto spoken by the holy apostle Matthew, “The day of his wickedness prevails” (Mat. 6:34).

For a few, a positive answer to this question was an attempt to find patterns in history and use them to predict the future. Attempts to predict the future have not stopped since ancient times. For example, the Old Testament prophets, the author of the Apocalypse, Nostradamus and many others. Maybe God vouchsafed them the ability to see the future, but for mere mortals who do not have this skill, their prophecies are “dark, like a path in the afterlife darkness” ( Bunin I. A.). These are predictions without specific places and dates, these are predictions “in general”. Any modern interpreter can attribute these prophecies to any historical event, past, present or future.

We are interested in the history of mankind. To really know the future of mankind, it is necessary to identify the patterns of its historical development. Some thinkers, for example, A. I. Herzen, categorically stated that history does not repeat itself. And if there is no repetition of historical events, then there is no comprehension of history, and the future depends on the actions in the present of the creator of history - man. Others say that God at the time of creation already created everything - the past, the present, and the future, and since it is not given to a person to know the works of God, then a weak person cannot know history, the creation of God, nor can he create the future. because the future is already predetermined. Still others, such as O. Spengler, A. J. Toynbee, L. N. Gumilyov, declared that patterns exist and tried to find the laws of history.

We also declare that history repeats itself, and we prove it in the history of the State.

Our world and everything in it has its beginning and its end, its birth and its death. The Universe, the Sun, the Earth, Humanity have their own cycle, but the duration of the cycle for each phenomenon is different. It is precisely this difference, as well as the interconnection and interdependence of the Fates, that give rise to the very dissimilarity of recurring events. This paper discusses the history of some states that are carriers of the Fates. The rest of the countries are just a background against which the fateful countries put into practice the will of their Fates. The duration of the cycle for these Fates is the same - 370 years, but the time of birth is different. The carrier of Destiny is the state, the territory on which it is located, the people, their faith and culture. L. N. Gumilyov writes: “At the population level, the actions of an ethnos are programmed by the environment, culture and genetic memory. On a personal level, they are free." ( Gumilyov L. N. "Ancient Rus' and the Great Steppe", p. 421). The actions of an ethnos aimed at creating a state are guided by Fate. At the dawn of mankind, the influence of the Fates on each other was insignificant, but the events of our era show their growing and all-pervading influence and interconnection. The end-beginning of any period is the death of God and his resurrection. This is the time of the death of states and their revival. The countries and peoples inhabiting them are pawns that the player, Fate, sacrifices or queens at her own discretion in order to achieve her only goals. Until the time measured by Fate expires, the state that is the bearer of Fate will not disappear. When Fate wants to kill the state, she gives him insignificant rulers, greedy for power, embraced by ambition, greed and self-interest. In our works, we consider the Fates of the World (the authors did not consider the history of India and Southeast Asia, since their history is under the authority of the considered Fates and the Fate of Africa).

Fate of the World

(the year of the beginning of the cycle is indicated)

Roman Destiny

…1383−1013−643−273 - 97−467−837−1207−1577−1947−2317…

Altai Fate

…1778−1408−1038−668−298 - 72−442−812−1182−1552−1922−2292…

German Destiny

…1839−1469−1099−729−359 - 11−381−751−1121−1491−1861−2231…

Iranian Destiny

…1810−1440−1070−700−330 - 40−410−780−1150−1520−1890−2260…

Arabian Destiny

…1590−1220−850−480−110 - 260−630−1000−1370−1740−2110…

Balkan Destiny

…1879−1509−1139−769−399−29 - 341−711−1081−1451−1821−2191…

Asia Minor Fate

…1925−1555−1185−815−445−75 - 295−665−1035−1405−1775−2145…

Young Chinese Destiny

…1686−1316−946−576−206 - 164−534−904−1274−1644−2014…

Old Chinese Destiny

…1841−1471−1101−731−361 - 9−379−749−1119−1489−1859−2229…

Phoenician Destiny

…1996−1626−1256−886−516−146 - 224−594−964−1334−1704−2074…

The fate of Russia

…1708−1338−968−598−228 - 142−512−882−1252−1622−1992−2362…

From the list of Fates mentioned above, we will take " Altai Destiny" from "Books of Fates", where the Fates and their impact on the peoples and states subject to them are considered, We will consider it from 442, although it is much older.

And then we'll take Altai Destiny" from book "The fate of Russia. History of the future", where the influence of this Destiny on " the fate of Russia.

And finally, consider The fate of Russia

BOOK OF FATE

Altai Destiny.

At the beginning of the 3rd century A.D. e. China has been negatively affected by the end of the cycle of Old Chinese Destiny. The Western Jin Empire was shaken by internecine wars. Not having the strength to repel the attackers from Manchuria, Mongolia and Tibet nomadic tribes, the empire lost its northern territories up to the Yangtze River. On the occupied lands, the nomads created their own states, fighting among themselves for hegemony in Northern China. The she-wolf is indifferent to who of her cubs drinks milk. The strong repel the weak, dooming them to death. Death to the weak is the law. So is Fate, she doesn’t care who seizes power, she always has several applicants for the fulfillment of her will. The most powerful and worthy turned out to be one of the Mongol-speaking Xianbi tribes - the Toba tribe. Tabgachi overcame the consequences of the defeat from the kingdom of Early Qin in 376 and managed to create in 386 their own state - the kingdom of Northern Wei (386-535, from 395 - empire). In 439, the Northern Wei Empire subjugated the last independent kingdom of Northern Liang (397−439). The entire North of China came under the control of the Northern Wei Empire. A small group of inhabitants of the Western Liang kingdom, led by Prince Ashina, were forced to emigrate to the Rourans. “Turkyuts arose like this: in 439, a small detachment of Prince Ashin fled from Northwestern China from the victorious and ruthless Tabgaches. The composition of this detachment was motley, but the predominant ethnic group was the Xianbei, i.e. the ancient Mongols. Settling on the slopes of Altai and Khingan and mingling with the natives, the Turks made iron smelting and weapon making their narrow specialty. ( Gumilyov L. N. "Ancient Rus' and the Great Steppe", p. 30).

While the Old Chinese Fate favored the Tabgachs, the Turks remained under the rule of the Rourans. In 534, the End-Beginning of the cycle of the Young Chinese Destiny came. The influence of the Old Chinese Destiny has disappeared. As a result of the turmoil, the Northern Wei empire broke up in 534 into two warring parts. The Turks took advantage of this war, they destroyed the Jurans who sheltered them a hundred years ago and created the Turkic Khaganate.

In 601, the Turkic Khaganate broke up into two independent Khaganates - Eastern and Western. In 630, the Eastern Turks were subjugated by the Chinese Tang Empire, and in 658 the same fate befell the Western Turks.

An outstanding statesman and political figure of Persia Mazdak (?-529), who lived in the 5th century, was the leader of the "communist movement, which was based on the religious dualistic teachings of Zaradushta (III century), which was a reform of the teachings of the Manichaeans" ( Small Soviet Encyclopedia. - M., 1928−1932, vol. IV, p. 803), in 491 proclaimed the slogan "Rob the loot!" Part of the Jews living in Persia, who became rich thanks to the support of the rulers, were forced to flee the country to the Roman Empire. Part of the Jews supported Mazdak and took an active part in this "communist" movement. In 529, a counter-revolutionary coup took place, and this time the Mazdakit Jews, who found shelter with the Khazars living between the Sulak and Terek rivers, were forced to flee the country.

The Jews who settled among the Khazars were joined by tribesmen from the Roman Empire. “The Jews who found salvation in Byzantium should have helped the Byzantines. But they helped in a strange way. Negotiating secretly with the Arabs, the Jews opened the gates of the cities at night and let the Arab soldiers in. They slaughtered the men and sold the women and children into slavery. The Jews, buying up slaves cheaply, resold them at a considerable profit for themselves. The Greeks did not like this. But, having decided not to make new enemies for themselves, they limited themselves to offering the Jews to leave. So the second group of Jews appeared on the lands of the Khazars - the Byzantine "( Gumilyov L. N. From Rus' to Russia: Essays on ethnic history. - M., 2000, p. 34). Toynbee is only partially right in saying that emigrants, including Jews, having endured the test of a human environment alien to them, they are quite satisfied that they are reaping a harvest from a field not cultivated by them. Toynbee A. J. Comprehension of History: Collection. / Per. from English. - M., 2001, p. 181). In addition to the harvest, they also need the blood of a plowman.

In 567, the Khazars living in the Caspian region became part of the Turkic Khaganate. In 650, one of the representatives of the ruling Ashina dynasty fled to the Khazars from the kaganate torn by civil strife, saving his life. Standing at the head of the Khazars, he, with their support, separated the Khazars from the Turkic Khaganate and created a new Khaganate - the Khazar. The Chinese, when conquering the Turks of the Western Turkic Khaganate, due to the remoteness of the Khazars, could not conquer them.

The Jews intermarried with the ruling Turkic dynasty and turned it into a Jewish one. In 808, “in the Khazar Khaganate, a certain influential Jew Obadiah took power into his own hands, turning the khan from the Ashina dynasty (by his father) into a puppet and made rabbinic Judaism the state religion of Khazaria ( Gumilyov L. N. Discovery of Khazaria, p. 283).

“The legitimate khan from the Ashina clan became a Jew, that is, he accepted the faith of his mother and was accepted into the community. All government posts were distributed among the Jews, and Obadiah himself took the title "peh" (bek), translated into Arabic as "malik", that is, king. This means that he headed the government under the nominal khan (kagan), who from that time was in custody and released for show to the people once a year ( ibid., p. 284).

“The coup, the victim of which was the tribal aristocracy of all ethnic groups that were part of the Khazar Khaganate and got along with the Turkic dynasty, caused a civil war, where the Magyars acted on the side of the rebels, and on the side of the Jews, Pechenegs hired for money. This war was merciless, because, according to the Babylonian Talmud, "a non-Jew who does evil to a Jew inflicts it on the Lord himself and, thus committing an insult to Majesty, deserves death" ( from the treatise "Sanhedrin", without specifying the sheet and column).

For the early Middle Ages, total war was an unusual innovation. It was supposed, having broken the resistance of the enemy, to impose taxes and duties on the defeated, often military service in auxiliary units. But the total extermination of all people who were on the other side of the front was an echo of ancient times. For example, during the conquest of Canaan by Joshua, it was forbidden to take captive women and children and thereby leave them life. It was even prescribed to kill domestic animals belonging to the enemy. Obadiah revived a forgotten antiquity.

After this war, the beginning and end of which cannot be accurately dated, Khazaria changed its appearance. From a systemic integrity, it has turned into an unnatural combination of an amorphous mass of subjects with a ruling class alien in blood and religion ( ibid., pp.285−286).

This dynasty began to wage wars of conquest against its neighbors. In particular, the Slavic tribes of the Polyans, Vyatichi, Severyan and Radimichi became tributaries of Khazaria in the 8th century. In 808, the Jewish community made a Jewish revolution in the Khazar Khaganate and usurped power, plunging the country that sheltered them into the abyss of civil war. The Jews waged an all-out war against the Khazar people. The persecution of the Orthodox began. The Orthodox bishopric was abolished. Christians fled the country. In general, the same thing happened that happened after three cycles of the Altai Destiny in Russia (808+370×3=1918). Having suppressed the resistance of the Khazar people, the Jews increased the colonial oppression of their neighbors. “... Slavic lands in the IX-X centuries. became a source of slaves for the Jews, like Africa of the 17th-19th centuries. ( Gumilyov L. N. Ancient Rus' and the Great Steppe. - M., 2002, p. 200).

1 182

In 1182, part of the Mongols, in obedience to the will of their Fate, proclaimed Temujin Khan with the title of Genghis ( L.N. Gumilyov “In search of a fictional kingdom”, p. 137). Thus begins the creation of a great and formidable power. Thus begins the centuries-old period of sorrows and misfortunes of the Mongols, which almost led them to complete disappearance from the face of the earth. Still the darkness of the Mongol-Tatars destroys countries and peoples, already the navy poison of the vanquished decomposes the winners.

The state of Genghis Khan, even before the death of its creator, according to his will, was divided into uluses between his four sons. The uluses are also part of a single, but already divided empire, unity disappears, the heirs of Genghis Khan see each other as sworn enemies, and the blood of the “conquerors of the universe” begins to flow. The descendants of the third son of Genghis Khan and his successor Ogedei were completely exterminated by the Hulaguids. The Chagatai ulus - allocated by Genghis Khan himself, as well as the state of the Hulaguids and the Ulus of the Great Khan or the state of Yuan, founded by the brothers Hulagu and Khubilai, do not survive the turn of 1370 (the year the cycle of the Arabian Fate began), and only the fragments of the Golden Horde succeed with great difficulty overcome and complete the cycle. Internal unrest, the invasion of Tamerlane dealt a crushing blow to the Golden Horde, from which she could not recover. In the 15th century, numerous khanates and hordes arose on its ruins, which were later included in the Russian Empire, which by force took the right to the legacy of Genghis Khan.

At the beginning of the 16th century, Mongolia consisted of two large parts: western and eastern, separated by the Khangai mountains. Each of the parts consisted of smaller holdings. One of the rulers, Dayan Khan (Khan in 1479-1543), united almost all of Mongolia under his rule. Before the death of Dayan Khan, he divided the country into eleven destinies according to the number of sons. Mongolia again split into Eastern and Western, Eastern, in addition, divided by the Gobi desert, split into Northern and Southern. The Mongols had their say. Altai Fate left the Mongols.

In 1921, units of the Red Army, which entered the territory of Mongolia at the request of the Mongolian Provisional Government, formed as a result of the revolution, together with the Mongolian army expelled the White Guards. On July 11, 1921, the independence of Mongolia was declared in the liberated Urga. At the head of the state stood the Bogdo Gegen. After his death (1924) Mongolia was proclaimed a People's Republic.

Altai Fate

The closer the end of the cycle approached, the more the Kazan Khanate was subjected to the influence of its neighbors. Kazan was the key to Jochi's legacy. It became the arena of struggle between Crimea and Moscow.

Attempts by the fragments of the Golden Horde to unite and resist the increasing influence of Moscow were unsuccessful. Russia was able to reverse the situation and wrest the banner of the Altai Destiny from the hands of its enemies and begin to conquer its conquerors, although the negative end of the cycle had an impact not only on the Tatar khanates. Moscow had to experience it for itself.

In 1552 Moscow conquered Kazan.

The year 552 marked the beginning of the process of unification of all the lands of the Altai Destiny under the leadership of Russia, which successfully coped with the task. By 1922, all the lands of this Destiny became subject to Moscow.

On October 25, 1922, with the liberation of Vladivostok, the civil war and intervention ended. The power of the Bolsheviks completely crushed a great country under itself. On December 27, 1922, an agreement was signed between the RSFSR, Ukraine, Belarus and the Transcaucasian Federation on the formation of the USSR. On December 30, the Kurultai of the authorized representatives of these countries approved a declaration and an agreement on the formation of the Union of Kurultai Socialist Uluses.

FATE OF RUSSIA. HISTORY OF THE FUTURE

The fate of RUSSIA

In the 9th century, two centers of the unification of the East Slavic tribes developed - Kyiv, the main city of the Polyans, and Ladoga, the main city of the Slovenes (Ilmen).

The North Russian tribe of Slovenes (Ilmensky) was ruled by their prince Gostomysl. After his death, the tribe became dependent on the Varangians and became their tributary. In 862, the Slovenes refused to pay tribute. In the struggle for power, they started riots and strife. Tired of all this, the Slovenes invited the leader of the Baltic Slavs Rurik Slavyanin and his brothers Sineus and Truvor to reign. The brothers were the grandchildren of the Slovenian prince Gostomysl, their mother was Umila Gostomyslovna, and their father was Godlav Bodrichsky. The elder brother Rurik (born c. 830 - died in 879) sat in Ladoga, the middle brother Sineus - on Beloozero, the younger, Truvor - in Izborsk.

In 864, when the younger brothers died, Rurik moved to Novgorod. In the cities of Polotsk, Rostov, Beloozero and others, he appointed his deputies.

Before his death, Rurik handed over the reign not to his son, young in years, but to his relative Oleg. In 882, Oleg (Kn. Novgorodsky in 879−882, Prince of Kiev in 882−912) went on a campaign with a retinue. He occupied Smolensk and Lyubech, and planted his governors there. In Kyiv, the main city of the glades, the princes Askold and Dir ruled. Having treacherously seized the rulers of Kyiv, Oleg killed them and himself sat down to reign there, making Kyiv the capital of his possessions (“the mother of Russian cities”). Tributes were established to the Slavs and Mary. In 883, Oleg conquered the Drevlyans. Then the northerners (884) and Radimichi (885), who had previously paid tribute to the Khazars, were conquered.

In 882, the period of Russian history known as "Kievan Rus" began.

In 1206 history repeated itself. The inhabitants of Galich called for the reign of Vladimir, Roman and Svyatoslav Igorevich. The brothers were the grandchildren of the Galician Prince Yaroslav Vladimirovich Osmomysl, their mother was Efrosinya Yaroslavna, and their father was Igor Svyatoslavich (Kn. Novgorod-Seversky in 1180-1198, Prince of Chernigov in 1198-1202), the hero of "The Tale of Igor's Campaign" .

Looking at the events of a thousand years ago through the prism of modern reality, one would like to say: “In 882, Oleg Varyazhsky with the Novgorod lads decided to run into the Kyiv boys. He took Smolensk and Lyubech, and placed his watchers there. At the head of the Kyiv were Askold and Dir. Oleg scored them an arrow, on which the leaders of Kyiv were killed.

In the first years of the Mongol-Tatar yoke, when most of the country's cities were burned, the population was killed and driven into slavery, the survivors were subjected to exorbitant tribute, when there was a question about the existence of Rus' itself and its people, two rulers were revealed in it and for it - Daniil Galitsky and Alexander Nevsky. The country had the opportunity to be reborn in a new incarnation, but which way the revival would go depended on the will of these people. New Rus' was supposed to be reborn in the Galicia-Volyn principality, but it was reborn in the Vladimir-Suzdal land.

The main role in choosing the path was played by the relationship of Rus' with Catholic Europe and the Horde. The wrong choice made by Daniil of Galicia and his descendants led the Galician kingdom to fall under the blows of Western invaders and subjugate Southern Rus' and the people for long and difficult centuries of slavery and captivity.

The policy of Alexander Nevsky and his heirs, who saw the main danger in the desire of the Catholic West to seize the “country of cities”, and force the population to abandon Orthodoxy and accept Catholic dogmas, helped Rus' to overcome everything, overcome everything, resist and be reborn.

Alexander Nevsky continued the policy of his great great-great-grandfather Vladimir Monomakh. “In fact, in the XII-XIII centuries. Polovtsian land (Desht-i-Kypchak) and Kievan Rus were one polycentric state" ( Gumilyov L. N. Ancient Rus' and the Great Steppe. - M., 2002.16, p. 303−304). The Polovtsy were replaced by the Mongol-Tatars. The burden of choosing Alexander Nevsky was much heavier than the burden of choosing Monomakh. That one has a strong state, while Alexander Nevsky has a fragmented, bloodless and depopulated country.

The turmoil ended after the election of sixteen-year-old Mikhail Romanov as tsar.

« GOD REDUCES THE TIME OF DISTRICTS FOR THE PEOPLE HE CHOSES» (Mark 13:20).

In 1622, the last prominent participants in the Time of Troubles, Fedor Ivanovich Mstislavsky, who died three times in 1598, 1606 and 1610, died. refused to be nominated for the Russian throne, and Ksenia Borisovna Godunova. After their death, a new cycle begins.

The policy of the traitor Gorby led to the weakening of the central government and the collapse of the country. An unsuccessful attempt to stop the collapse was made by the Eight-Boyars of the State Committee for the State of Emergency. But what to be, that cannot be avoided. It is impossible to cancel the death of God, he must ascend the cross, but to reduce or increase his suffering depends on the will of man. If a person is a champion of Evil, then he intensifies suffering and for this he must be punished.

The ruling circles of the union republics, striving for even greater power, headed by Yeltsin, destroyed the USSR. On December 8, 1991, in the dense Belarusian forest, in Belovezhskaya Pushcha, a few kilometers from the Soviet-Polish border, the leaders of three republics (RSFSR, Ukrainian SSR and BSSR) gathered - B. N. Yeltsin, L. M. Kravchuk and S. S. Shushkevich and signed the Agreement on the creation of the CIS prepared in deep secrecy from their peoples. On December 21, the leaders of eight more republics joined this Agreement.

Deputies of the Parliament of Ukraine and the Supreme Soviets of Belarus and Russia ratified the documents on December 10, 11 and 12, respectively. Soon, the supreme authorities of almost all the republics that signed the Union Treaty in 1922 denounced it.

On the evening of December 25, speaking on television, M. Gorbachev stated the collapse of the USSR and resigned as president of the USSR. The Russian flag was raised over the Grand Kremlin Palace instead of the state flag of the Soviet Union. The next day, the Council of the Republics of the Supreme Soviet of the USSR held its last meeting and adopted a Declaration in which it announced the demise of the USSR. The Soviet Union, having existed for exactly 69 years, went into oblivion. A bomb planted under the building of the statehood of the USSR by V. I. Lenin exploded and smashed it to smithereens.

Russia is gone, Russia is out

And don't ring the bells.

Not a word or a word about her,

No one cares for sadness.

Russia silences the chatter

And upside down lies.

And we're leaving with her forever

Not explaining your fault.

And in the Novgorod region, the Uzbeks

Already uprooting virgin soil.

M. Dudin

As history shows, only a mono-ethnic state can overcome the hard times of the End-Beginning of the cycle. The state, uniting numerous tribes, nationalities and peoples, does not overcome this boundary and disappears forever in the abyss of non-existence. Russia could overcome troubled times only because it was the country of one Russian people. From the beginning of the 19th century, the process of turning Russia into a multinational state began, but until the end of the 20th century, the Russian people retained their dominant position. The current policy of immigration of Russia (namely Russia, not the Russian Federation), its occupation by foreigners and foreigners, with the simultaneous depopulation of the Russian people, is leading Russia to the slaughter. 2361 - this will be the last year of the existence of Russia, if you do not ...

CONCLUSION

» You must do good from evil , That's why What his more Not from what to do ».

R. P. Warren

Russia is a great country. She will have a great future if you and I do not lose her. During the years of turmoil, internal strife and intervention, its territory was reduced, but the turmoil passed, and Russia was not only restored in the same size, but also increased, pushing its borders, and its power increased. With internal unity, no one could offend her with impunity, but in times of internal strife, when the unity of the country was violated, neighbors, like mad dogs, attacked Russia, trying to snatch as much as possible from her wealth. But even in difficult years, when there was a question about the existence of the Russian state, the enemies failed to destroy it. An amazing thing is that countries that have been at war with each other for centuries cannot achieve an advantage in this struggle, and if Russia is at war with any country, then that country can no longer be found on the map. It either disappears altogether, or falls under the rule of Russia or its allies for centuries. Where are the obry, Khazars, Pechenegs, Polovtsy? Where are the numerous hordes and orders?

We perceive today's world statically. It seems to us that the West has gone far ahead and we will never catch up with it. This is not so, it also has its own cycle, and today events are emerging that will show the European peoples where Kuz'kin's mother winters. Europe not the navel of the earth, it is only one of the many peninsulas of Asia . The unity of the West is an ephemeral thing, the day will come when the unity will disappear, and discord and enmity will appear in its place. And rivers of blood will flow again. “New cities will become dust, leaving no trace in memory, only the winds, howling at the ends of the earth, will still sing in their dust” ( Sterling Brown).

Determining the position of Russia in the system of states, Peter I attached great importance to relations with the East. “We need Europe for several decades,” said Peter I, “and then we must turn our backs on it,” that is, face the East.

Stop spinning. It's time to turn around and face yourself. Russia has no friends in this world and needs to rely only on its own strength.

The Russian economy is slowing down, and apparently, this is a systemic crisis. As Hegel aptly put it, “history repeats itself until people learn the lessons they must learn from history.” Does history repeat itself? - asks next the famous English historian Arnold Toynbee. It is repeated, he says, but not as a sentence, everything depends on the meaningful actions of the ruling stratum. Civilizations face the challenges of history - and either overcome them or disintegrate. The same phenomena are observed in economic history. To understand what is happening now, we need to significantly expand our time horizon - sometimes even beyond our history.

On its thousand-year journey, Russia has repeatedly faced various cardinal challenges, but each time, by God's providence, it was reborn again. Let's remember the Mongol yoke. During this most difficult test, Russia strengthened its state, army, church, faith, which allowed it to overthrow the conquerors in the future. Then there was a troubled time, aggression from Poland, and again the path was repeated - spiritual, civil and state revival from a point, the return from which was a miracle.

The most important motive of our history is the conflict with the West, which has emerged since the time of A. Nevsky, and the country's periodic lagging behind, followed by catching up with modernization. The military and technical backwardness in the 17th century cost us a significant part of the territory conquered by the Swedes. But then Peter I squeezes the state into a fist - and Russia becomes from a backward country one of the strongest states in Europe, we return what was lost. Catherine II continues the success of Peter after a break, but then the country again gradually lags behind. Although we had the strength to repel Napoleon's attack, by the time of the Crimean War, the country's military and economic backwardness became absolutely clear. The result is a loss. And here again the Great Reforms of Alexander II, but their result from an economic point of view was contradictory, as now, having laid the foundations of capitalism, the economy was clearly stalling.

Then Russia lost both in the Japanese war of 1905 and in the first world war. Why did this happen? In addition to spiritual reasons, by that time, despite the new reforms, we were once again behind the West in technical and military terms. Tsarist Russia, with all due respect to Emperor Nicholas II, did not cope with this challenge and simply fell apart. Even if this happened with the use of subversive activities from the West, this factor is secondary.

We defeated Mongols, Poles and Swedes, Turks and French. But the USSR, on the contrary, was able to repeat the leap of Peter, and Stalin, for all its shortcomings, having accepted an agrarian country, "surrendered" it with a powerful industry, advanced science - with the presence of an atomic bomb, very close to creating a hydrogen bomb, launching the first satellite and first nuclear reactor. And most importantly, the USSR was able to defeat Nazi Germany and return all the territories lost after the First World War. During industrialization, we cooperated with the United States, but we did not buy finished products, but technologies and factories. Now, having carried out revolutionary market reforms, the country is on the verge of a new, again catching up modernization. The main question is which path will it take - sovereign or liberal?

So what is the secret of the country's constant lagging behind? The second most important leitmotif of the history of Russia is the passive behavior of a significant part of our elites, against the backdrop of a constant contradiction between "Westerners" and "patriots". As Dambissa Moyo writes in the bestseller How the West Died, what matters most to civilization is how the elites use their capital. This is another expression of Toynbee's thought about finding a worthy response from the ruling elites of civilization. The economy of Tsarist Russia, as now, was based on raw materials and agriculture. Part of the elites, as today, preferred to eat up capital, receiving funds from the export of raw materials, and were in favor of free trade. As a rule, this path was followed by the so-called "Westerners" and the passive, "dependent" part of the elites. The passivity of some strata of the elites apparently has a historical character, caused by the presence of a long period of serfdom, "feeding", "distribution", etc. including using, if necessary, Western experience. This, for the most part, included the active, creative part of the elites. Peter I, being a patriot, used the experience of the West, but Peter I cared exclusively for the good of Russia.

These groups had pronounced contradictions. A similar situation was in the United States, which led to a civil war between the industrial North and the plantation South. The main motive in this conflict was largely customs policy. The planters wanted free trade (like those who now brought us to the WTO), and the northern industrialists wanted high tariffs and protection of industry from English expansion. For the benefit of the US, the industrialists were stronger, otherwise the US would now be something like Argentina. Under Peter I, Catherine II, customs tariffs were high. But the course of the liberal policy of Alexander II led to a reduction in tariffs, and the economy, as now, had problems. According to some historians, the reason for the opening of the Russian domestic market for the West was the loss in the Crimean War. We have the same result now after losing the Cold War. At the same time, the redemption loans received by the landowners as a result of the land reform, according to historians, were to a large extent simply “eaten away”. The logic of capitalism is such that the West can consider any country, including Russia, only as a market and source of raw materials.

A similar situation was in Spain, which filled itself with mountains of American gold and silver, but did not create its own industry, unlike enterprising England. So we, bathing in petrodollars, embarked on the path of Spain. The leading figures of Spain at that time, as well as now in Russia, gave a clear picture of its problems, but no action was taken, as we have so far. But England quickly realized that it was absolutely ridiculous to export raw materials, and therefore created the strongest civilization. Spain was also one of the strongest countries in the world. But who remembers this now? This is how we lose our positions.

Then Emperor Alexander III came and the liberal shop was sharply slammed. Tariffs rose sharply and the economy began to develop rapidly. Konstantin Pobedonostsev, the tsar's mentor, who later became chief prosecutor of the Holy Synod, gave Alexander III good advice. In particular, on March 6, 1881, he wrote to the emperor: “... the hour is terrible and time does not endure. Either now save Russia and yourself, or never. If they sing the old siren songs to you that you need to calm down, you need to continue in a liberal direction ... oh, for God's sake, don't believe it, Your Majesty, don't listen. This will be the death, the death of Russia and yours: it is clear to me, like daylight ... "

History repeats itself: it is easy to see a clear historical similarity between the period from the great reforms of Alexander II and the further movement to the events of 1917 and the current “liberation” and new “enslavement” of the country, from the yoke of the communists to the yoke of the liberals, which began with M. Gorbachev’s Perestroika and continues to the present time, which has led to a new crisis of Russia's traditional raw-material model of the economy. The USSR solved the problem by the most severe subordination of the elites to the interests of the country, the complete closure of domestic markets from imports. But as soon as during the time of M. Gorbachev we began to actively import goods on loans taken in the West, the fate of our economy was decided. The current situation is just a continuation of "perestroika".

As for the current elite, its main part (certainly not all) arose mainly not as a result of economic “natural” selection (i.e. due to successful investment), but was largely created artificially as a result of the “distribution” of tidbits of property to the most resourceful representatives of the socialist nomenklatura. Economically and psychologically, this layer tends to consume and eat up capital rather than to invest and create, which is actually observed. Almost all the entrepreneurial strata of Tsarist Russia - our golden fund - were destroyed or emigrated after the revolution, and this is an irreparable loss. To reverse the trend, it is necessary to radically change the principles of the economic system and educate this layer anew.

Now Russia, despite the good standard of living of the middle class, as well as the population of Moscow and some cities, has been marking time in terms of structural reforms, at least since 2004. not for development, but for the conservation of the achieved Status Qwo through the policy of "managed democracy". Invaluable time wasted in empty chatter. The success of the economy is determined not only by our income, but above all by the volume of our own production. The current abundance is based on high oil and commodity prices.

Take a look at the advertising signs of the leading trade brands, are there Russian names visible there? Alas, there are not so many domestically produced goods in our stores either. And to be buyers, we need to be producers. But production is degrading, there are problems with effective employment, which our economy cannot create. What do we do in Moscow - we sit in offices and sort through pieces of paper - and this is life and creativity? And what do people do in stagnant regions that look almost like after the war? That is why the country is quietly dying out, drowning grief in a glass of vodka.

But history cannot be deceived, Russia has been challenged, either it will be completely economically enslaved by the West, as happened in the period before the 1917 revolution, or it will repel it and play its own game. History repeats itself. Do not confuse cooperation and enslavement - they are different things. But I'm afraid, in order to rise and be reborn, we need to see the full horror of the abyss into which we can fall. And most likely from the point when the conflict with the West will be transferred from a conditionally hidden to an explicit phase. Let us recall the Mongol enslavement, when we were imposed a tribute and all issues were resolved in the Horde; Moscow, given to the Poles in troubled times, then to Napoleon and then burned down; the ruin of the country and the loss of vast territories after the First World War and the Civil War; Let's remember the accelerated advance of the fascist army almost to the heart of the country - Moscow, and then an unexpected offensive, and then victory. We retreated, but a turning point came and an understanding came: we can still do it! But aren't the risks of a cardinal renewal of the elites too great in this case? After all, this is the only thing close to them to understand.

What is the main reason for the economic slowdown? Crisis of the world economy, poor investment climate, low labor productivity? Russia, as a self-sufficient country, with the right economic policy, foreign markets are not a decree (see the experience of China - it still has a growth of 7%). For production to work, it must be profitable. But since the beginning of the 2000s, the ruble has been practically stable, while our domestic prices have grown against the backdrop of the strengthening of the ruble and an increase in domestic costs by almost 3.8 times since 1999 (according to official inflation data). As a result, our production has become uncompetitive. A similar reason for the loss of competitiveness existed on the eve of the pre-crisis year of 1998, when the economy also lay in ruins. The situation is aggravated even more due to the full opening of our markets (remember the tariff policy of Alexander II).

What about our precious money? The refinancing rate is 8.25% with economic growth not exceeding 2%. The rate in conditions of stagnation should be less than the rate of growth. For comparison: US Fed rate - 0.25%, GDP growth - 2.25%; Japan - rate -0.1%, GDP growth - 1.8%; EU - Rate -0.5%, GDP - fall by 0.4%.

Now let's draw another historical parallel. In order to attract foreign investment under Nicholas II, Russia switched to the gold standard, and attracted large loans to acquire gold coverage. This strengthened the position of the ruble, but led, as now, to a monetary deficit within the country. If Peter I pursued an active monetary policy, and Catherine II printed paper rubles in any amount necessary for the economic circulation of the country, then with the introduction of the gold standard (as it is now with the currency board), despite the growth of the economy and population, this was no longer possible. Foreigners invested in Russia and bought it no less actively. Huge payments on foreign loans robbed the country, it had to take out everything that was possible (the famous “we are not enough to eat, but we will take it out!”). Domestic demand and consumption were insufficient. All this also set the stage for the revolution.

And now we are stepping on the same rake. Money supply growth should be roughly the sum of projected inflation and projected growth. As of September 1, 2013, the money supply M2 in the Russian Federation has grown by only 5% since the beginning of the year. As of the end of September, inflation was 4.72%. What remains for economic growth - 0.3%? If we want 5% growth with 5% inflation, M2 growth should be over 10%. Even economists from Bank of America and HSBC have already said that our Central Bank is behaving like Scrooge McDuck, although the economy is almost in recession. So where are we going - to a guaranteed crisis? Then there will be no inflation. And buying up the remnants of our economy will be even easier.

But in 1998, smart people came, including E. Primakov, who found a classic way out - they carried out a five-fold devaluation and began to actively increase the money supply, without which the entire economic growth of the 2000s would have been simply impossible. Another secret of the "economic miracle", in addition to the rise in oil prices, is the active growth of the money supply during this period (during 1999-2007) by an average of 40% per year, which led to an almost threefold level of monetary security of the economy (the level of monetization - M2/GDP ratio - from 15 to 40%) with a threefold drop in inflation from 36 to 12%. Inflation cannot be defeated by money hunger, it can only be cured by active economic development. To create conditions for growth, it is necessary to increase the level of monetization to the level of developed countries - i.e. up to 80-100%, but it practically does not grow in the post-crisis period (as of January 1, 2013 - about 44%).

The discussion of economic policy issues tends to be deliberately steered into a channel where you will never find the right answer. Because the economy is ruled not by science, but by pure politics in such a form that its true goals for us are hidden behind an iron curtain, open only to a few. The reigning leapfrog makes it difficult to correctly perceive reality. Virtually no measures in the current structure of the economy without a sharp reduction in costs and restrictions on imports will have no effect. Suppose a miracle has happened, we will re-equip our entire economy, while labor productivity in our country will hardly be higher than outside; and if we leave the exchange rate and customs policy at the same level - but who will need these products with our domestic costs and overstocked foreign markets?

It is necessary to make domestic production competitive, for which it is necessary to reduce all possible costs - monetary, corrupt, criminal, to have not expensive tariffs, but cheap ones, to develop infrastructure. And we do exactly the opposite. The country's economy is like a snake eating its own tail. Everyone wants to snatch at least something, but there is no moral and rational center that would take care of the common good. Indeed, who is now interested in the progress of Russia? Commodity elites receiving dollars for oil and gas? The US and Europe, thinking what to do with their excess capacity and how to shove more into foreign markets? And what about ours? China, which maintains normal relations with us, is only interested in our raw materials and territories. Everyone is afraid of the awakening of the "Russian bear", now shrouded in fetters on all sides. The current economic policy is pushing the country into the abyss.

The opinions expressed now by some "correct" analysts that slow growth rates are absolutely normal for us are simply absurd. This means that they are ready to preserve our backwardness, given the gigantic level of underinvestment and underdevelopment that we have, with a still huge population. I can assure you for sure that if Emperor Peter I or Alexander III came now, let's not talk about Stalin, they would have found a way out of the current situation within 24 hours. The country would have earned, and the economy would have developed no worse than the Chinese in its best times, growing at least 7% per year.

And another important point about the behavior of the elites. Our elites do not want to pay higher taxes (on a progressive scale), as they do in virtually semi-socialist Germany (free and frankly cheap higher education, large unemployment benefits, inexpensive housing), as it was before 1917. Thus, they want evade responsibility for the development of the country. And they also cannot spend budget money without embezzlement. Meanwhile, the German elites do not shine with luxury, but they shine with achievements in industry (although Germany has its own problems - migration of the population from the southern undeveloped countries that does not want to assimilate). What do we shine with? The withdrawal of capital and the complete concession of our markets to foreigners, sustainably supported by the high real exchange rate of the ruble? Do embezzlers, racketeers, raiders, corrupt officials, businessmen who do not pay taxes understand that they are harming society, and ultimately themselves? Or are they just maximizing their capital? Think about it, what's wrong with you? What is the price of success in terms of morality and eternity?

At one time, Ivan Kalita took extremely important steps to defeat the Mongol yoke. He began to build temples, moving the spiritual center of our civilization to Moscow, was able to start unification processes, put things in order in the state, which stimulated the development of the economy and ensured the influx of people into his principality. But only his grandson Dmitry Donskoy was able to successfully concentrate the forces of the state and defeat the Mongol hordes on the Kulikovo field. Yes, we did, although that was not the end of the struggle. Despite the economic impasse, the Orthodox Church is steadily strengthening, the number of new and restored churches, and churched citizens is growing. As Toynbee believed, civilization is reborn only on a strong spiritual foundation.

The elites must invest and pay taxes, otherwise the state will not survive. And the state, despite the inertia of officials, should not interfere, and even better, actively help in this. Otherwise, the matter will end in a crisis or dictatorship, which will suddenly put everything in its place. And if fate sends us a new severe test in the form of a new global economic crisis, international or internal conflict, as has happened more than once? In fact, everything repeats itself, now we are completely losing both in the economic war and in the battle of wits, we are losing sovereignty. And now you can also say, as before: there is nowhere to retreat - behind Moscow. But the current enemy is devious to the point of impossibility, and most importantly, the front has no borders, passing everywhere, including inside us, and we, like zombies, continue to babble liberal mantras that deprive us of development.

So why not resort to a tried and tested tool - devaluation? Well, how can it be - our "partners" will be very unhappy, because they will not be able to sell us their gross product. After all, constant incantations against "currency wars" are heard on the G20. And how will the population react to the inevitable rise in prices? Buying equipment abroad will be expensive, but what about loans taken in foreign currency for those firms that have only ruble revenue? With a soft and correct devaluation, everyone will benefit, both raw materials producers, and industrialists, and the population, and banks. The ruling elite has time before the next elections to repeat Y.Primakov's success. You just have to be patient. Without labor, sacrifice and service, there will never be success. Who was dissatisfied with the growth of the economy in the period 1999-2007, although immediately after the depreciation of the ruble everything looked terrifying?

And if everything is left as it is, then unemployment will rise, the economy may go into a tailspin, and the results of future elections may be so disastrous that no “miracles” can fix them. As for the devaluation, it all depends on the specific situation, but there is a proven experience - L. Erhard, the German economic miracle; FD Roosevelt, the Great Depression, China today, and finally Russia after 1998, all took advantage of the undervaluation.

The foundation of the new economy, as under Alexander II, was erected - it's time to think about your national interests. As our great philosopher I. Ilyin wrote: "Russian state power will either be strong, or it will not exist at all." Historically, only such power provided the country with goal-setting, unity, achievements and progress. Toynbee believed that the essence of civilization would definitely remind of itself. As Horace wrote, “Drive nature through the door, it will fly in through the window.” Only a strong hand can consolidate the state and establish order, putting the country on the path of progress, depriving the strongest individualists of the opportunity to create lawlessness in society and harm it, subordinating them to public interests in the name of general harmony. For example, F.D. Roosevelt did this by introducing higher taxes and strict state regulation of the economy. But the United States has become a world leader. And their current problems are primarily related to the rejection of his heritage.

At one time, ancient Greece was unable to overcome disunity; as a result, it was replaced by a stronger Roman civilization. In addition, pagan civilizations did not have a spiritual foundation that could provide them with a future. On the contrary, during the time of the Mongol yoke, Russia consolidated, as a result, freed itself and became a player on a global scale. Other examples are the unification of the nation by F.D. Roosevelt, fragmented Germany by Otto von Bismarck. As for Russia, a split is now not only multiplying, but actively encouraged. Society is split into left and right, communists and liberals, there are national and regional contradictions, income inequality is growing. There are no national goals and objectives in the country, the ideology is fruitless, as is the slogan "Every man for himself, get rich!" But “…every kingdom divided against itself will be desolate; and every city or house divided against itself shall not stand” (Matthew 12:25).

There are cardinal contradictions in the country between the interests of the elites and its national interests. Our industrial lobby, due to the policy of "open doors" and "lowering" the national industry "below the plinth", has practically no internal weight. This is reflected in economic, trade, industrial, monetary policy, as well as military and educational reforms, which together lead to a lack of development, insufficient investment with an unsatisfactory investment climate and capital flight. There is no need to make a helpless gesture and give out the consequences for the cause, you need to look at the root. That is why so much is said about it and little is done, one thing is promised, another comes out. Like Sisyphus, we are all the time (as if) overcoming difficulties, but from the point of view of fundamental economic interests, we are marking time, chaotically shying in different directions. That is why many experts cannot understand what is happening in the country.

Now the strength of civilization lies not only in the army, but in industry and science. For a long time there has been a constant struggle for the markets of foreign countries in the world. And as the experience of any wars (real and economic) shows, the one who has stronger industry and science wins. Once again, let us recall the differences in this area between Tsarist Russia and the USSR. So what are we doing in this area? In Moscow, it is almost destroyed and replaced by business centers, in the regions there are either collapsed buildings or decaying factories, barely making ends meet. At the same time, we annually produce 55-65 mln. dollars of capital, and imported goods worth 342.7 billion dollars. Only production can create national wealth, which is perfectly shown in the book of the Norwegian economist Eric S. Reinert "How rich countries became rich and why poor countries remain poor."

Until the conflict with the West manifests itself clearly, there will be no national politics, because the vector of the elites is too strongly directed outside the country. Now the policy of total concessions prevails, which is carried out in the name of the possibility of integrating our elites into the global ones. But this is an illusion - no one will ever let us go there if we do not achieve this with our own strength. No one can negotiate with the United States, they can only use someone for their own purposes, even when they help someone.

And only the Syrian conflict, like the Rubicon associated with the battle for the possibility of transiting Qatari gas to Europe against the Russian gas route, makes Russia go against the West. And even this conflict, in fact, lies in the same external vector of the elites - in the struggle for raw materials markets. The US is pushing Russia here too, increasing the export of hydrocarbon raw materials. Ahead of the showdown for the oil deposits of the Arctic. What if the US decides to confiscate our bank holdings in their banks, as it did with Iraq and Libya, and there is information that some US senators are already proposing such sanctions? When the secret becomes clear, then the elites will face the question - with whom are you, the "servants" of the people? Or, as Moses asked, descending from the mountain, finding Israel in a terrible fall: "Who is the Lord's ...?".

And finally, the second impetus for change "from below" can come from massive social discontent. But don't be fooled - the Russians endure for a long time, but the cauldron can explode at any moment. So, you need a reason. If it does not exist, there will be no reforms.

The only way in the current situation to start the engine of the economy in the face of weak demand, including with a slowdown in the external economy, is to conduct a sharp increase in investments in infrastructure projects (roads, bridges, airports, electricity and housing) and industrial development. See the experience of the United States during the Great Depression, and now China, which has already launched two infrastructure development programs in the country. By the way, now the United States has undertaken to return jobs to their homeland - from electronics to clothing production.

This will create a colossal multiplicative demand, change the quality of life, and increase investment attractiveness. Dmitry Medvedev is right when he speaks about economic freedom and business climate. But in a time of crisis, without stimulating measures from the state, the economy will go into a tailspin - this is an axiom that has been repeatedly tested by time and theoretically substantiated by J. M. Keynes. During the crisis, the main thing for the private sector is the preference for liquidity, there is no investment.

What is the conclusion from this? We have a Western yoke, and it, like the Mongol one, must be thrown off. And this is a great chance to create a new, flawless model of "social capitalism". Yes, we can - there is no other way, otherwise we may face the fate of our successor, the Byzantine Empire. But "Moscow is the third Rome, ... and there will be no fourth!" And as Alexander II said to dissatisfied elites: “It is better to abolish serfdom from above than to wait for the people to abolish it from below.” Russia and its leaders, if they value what they have and, it is assumed that being reasonable, should not repeat the mistakes of their predecessors made in Tsarist Russia, they must find a way out of the current situation. Otherwise, the river of history will wash away the house of cards they built, even if it is beautiful in its luxury. The wave of liberalization will absolutely inevitably be replaced by a wave of nationally oriented policies. These are the lessons of history.